Friday, June 27, 2026 · 06:30 ET
All Signal. Zero Noise.
THE SIGNAL
Thursday's session delivered a clean bifurcation: inflation weighed, but AI didn't blink. The PCE price index came in hotter than expected, dimming near-term Fed cut expectations and pressuring rate-sensitive growth names across the board. That macro overhang did real damage to crowded positions — Palantir touched a 52-week low, the quantum cohort continued its post-executive-order fade, and the space and drone names sold off in concert.
The counterweight was Micron's blowout earnings print — a +16% surge that reignited confidence in AI memory demand and sent a clear signal that hyperscaler capex is not decelerating. That news lifted AMD and kept NVDA anchored near $195. The message from the semiconductor complex: demand is real, AI spending is real, and the infrastructure buildout has runway. Energy names tied to data center power demand (VST, VRT) picked that signal up and ran with it.
The single most important tell on Thursday: PLTR hit a 52-week low despite announcing a new U.S. Army NGC2 contract. When a defense-AI company that just signed a government deal can't hold any bid, the market is telling you the valuation story has become a bigger headwind than the contract story. Watch this level carefully — it tells you a lot about risk appetite for high-multiple defense-tech.
TODAY'S TOP CALLS
PLTR $107.27 (–5.49%) — Palantir broke to a 52-week low ($106.39 intraday) on the same day it announced the U.S. Army NGC2 contract and a Zeta Global partnership. New deals are not moving revenue estimates enough to justify the multiple, and the tape is making that verdict loud and clear.
IONQ $50.56 (–5.67%) — The quantum sector executed a textbook sell-the-news after Trump signed two quantum computing executive orders on June 22 (including the $2B QC-ADDS federal equity program). IBM and IonQ were named direct beneficiaries — and still dropped hard Thursday. Post-EO positioning is washing out.
VST $167.77 (+3.01%) — Vistra led the energy bottleneck cohort as data center power demand remains the cleanest structural story in the market. While growth tech corrected on PCE, the power-to-AI-infrastructure trade held firm. VRT added +2.89%, reinforcing the theme.
ON THE WATCHLIST
NVDA · AMD · AVGO · VRT · VST · PLTR · LMT · IONQ · QBTS · RKLB · ASTS · FCX · NEM
↓ The full 10-sector tape, the key levels, and what we're watching are below — for Pro members. Upgrade at newsletter.zeronoisereport.com/upgrade.
THE FULL TAPE
Artificial Intelligence — Mixed; AI Capex Narrative Intact
NVDA $195.74 (–1.64%) · AMD $532.57 (+2.47%) · AVGO $378.91 (–0.83%) · TSM $434.99 (–1.32%)
NVDA pulled back modestly from the $200 zone but held structurally. Micron's blowout earnings — which cited NVDA's Blackwell and confirmed the next Vera Rubin production ramp — gave the AI complex a confidence shot. AMD was the standout, up +2.47% on AI-coattail buying as memory and GPU demand signals reinforced each other. AVGO and TSM retreated slightly on broader risk-off, but nothing structural. Rubin is the next upgrade cycle; the 10x AI inference cost reduction it promises is why hyperscaler demand stays front-loaded.
Key levels to watch: NVDA support cluster $190–$192 (held this week); resistance $200–$204 (the rejection zone from this session's open). AMD needs to hold $520 on any near-term retest; $550+ is the next meaningful target if AI sentiment holds. AVGO $372 is the floor to watch on weakness.
Data Centers — Divergence: Infrastructure Wins, REITs Drift
VRT $325.57 (+2.89%) · DLR $192.44 (–0.30%)
Vertiv was the clearest data point of the session in this cohort — up nearly 3% while the broader market digested PCE. The power/cooling infrastructure story is separating from the REIT side of the data center trade. DLR slipped modestly; higher-for-longer rates suppress REIT premium expansion. VRT, as a pure-play on data center power infrastructure rather than real estate, doesn't carry that liability.
Key levels to watch: VRT $316 is the prior session close and near-term support on any pullback; $340 is the recent intraday high and first meaningful resistance. DLR watch $189–$190 as the floor; failure there opens $185.
Energy Bottlenecks — Outperformer of the Session
VST $167.77 (+3.01%) · CEG $268.69 (+0.27%)
Vistra led the ZNR universe Thursday. The thesis is unchanged: every AI data center needs grid power, the grid is constrained, and VST sits directly at that bottleneck. CEG was flattish but held. The consistent outperformance of this cohort during tech selling episodes is a structural signal — it suggests institutional rotation into power-as-infrastructure is deepening.
Key levels to watch: VST $175 is the next round-number target; $162–$163 is the near-term floor (prior week's base). CEG $267 is support; $275–$280 is the target if nuclear demand narrative re-accelerates.
Oil & Gas — Quietly Firmer; Not a Story Day
XLE $54.09 (+0.97%) · OXY $51.21 (+0.23%)
Energy quietly lifted without a catalyst. WTI firmed modestly on supply concerns but there was no headline driver. OXY held above $51, XLE posted a small recovery. This cohort continues to trade as a macro hedge rather than a growth driver in the current portfolio mix. No strong directional thesis from Thursday's price action.
Key levels to watch: XLE $52.50 is near-term support; $55–$56 is resistance from the recent range top. OXY needs to clear $52 with conviction to signal a broader recovery; $50 is the floor to defend.
Commodities & Rare Earth — Metals Firm on Broad Risk-On Pockets
FCX $62.80 (+1.55%) · NEM $95.35 (+1.39%)
Both copper (FCX) and gold (NEM) pushed higher Thursday. FCX's move is interesting given the macro headwinds — it suggests the underlying demand narrative for copper (electrification, AI buildout power infrastructure) is overriding rate sensitivity. NEM's lift is consistent with the inflation data: hotter PCE means gold as an inflation hedge sees incremental buying. The rare earth names continue to track commodity sentiment rather than political catalysts.
Key levels to watch: FCX $61.50 is near-term support; $64–$65 is the target on continuation. NEM watch $93.50 as the support floor; break above $97 would be significant.
Quantum Computing — Sell-the-News in Full Effect
IONQ $50.56 (–5.67%) · QBTS $21.91 (–4.66%)
The Trump quantum executive orders (June 22) delivered a short-lived pop that is now completely giving back. Two EOs — including QC-ADDS (deploying $2B in federal equity stakes in hardware developers) — named IBM and IonQ as primary beneficiaries. The government commitment is structurally positive. But the tape Thursday was unambiguous: traders loaded up on the June 22 news and used Thursday's narrative confirmation pieces as the exit. IONQ hitting $50.56 from $57+ earlier this week is the textbook post-catalyst compression trade.
Key levels to watch: IONQ $50 is a psychological floor; a close below $49 brings $45 into focus. Near-term resistance $54–$55. QBTS $21.50 is the key support; $24 is overhead from earlier this week. Neither name is a short here on valuation — but position sizing must account for extreme volatility.
Emerging Healthcare — Pressure Across the Cohort
HIMS $32.71 (flat) · DOCS $19.85 (–4.70%)
HIMS essentially held flat — a relative outperformance given the macro environment. DOCS was the story here, dropping –4.70% without a specific headline catalyst, suggesting sector rotation out of high-multiple healthcare tech on PCE-driven rate concerns. The broader telemedicine/AI-health cohort has been compressing multiples for weeks now as higher-for-longer becomes the base case.
Key levels to watch: HIMS $30–$31 is critical support; a test of that level would be the third touch and would carry significance. DOCS $19.50 is near-term floor; inability to recapture $21 short-term is technically concerning.
Drones & Autonomous — Distribution Continues
AVAV $136.68 (–3.87%) · JOBY $8.87 (–4.42%)
Both names sold off meaningfully. AVAV is under pressure despite a strong underlying defense drone contract environment — the valuation catch-up trade that ran into the spring is now reversing. JOBY continues to trade as a speculative growth name sensitive to rate expectations; PCE data hit it harder than fundamentals justify. The autonomous aviation story is intact (FAA certification timelines, partnerships) but near-term price action is distribution.
Key levels to watch: AVAV $135 is near-term support; the $140–$142 range is now overhead resistance. JOBY $8.50 is the floor to watch; a break below brings $8 into play. Near-term resistance at $9.50.
Defense & AI — LMT Diverges; PLTR in Trouble
PLTR $107.27 (–5.49%) · LMT $505.02 (+2.72%)
This was the most important divergence in Thursday's tape. Lockheed Martin gained +2.72% on no specific news — the traditional defense trade is receiving a bid as investors rotate from high-multiple defense-tech (PLTR) toward earnings-based defense primes. PLTR's 52-week low at $106.39 despite the Army NGC2 contract announcement is the defining data point. The market is saying: the contract is real, but it doesn't move the needle on a $200B+ market cap. Valuation is the story now, not the deal flow.
Key levels to watch: PLTR $106–$107 is the 52-week low zone — critical. A weekly close below $106 is bearish; it removes a prior base. Recovery attempt needs recapture of $112–$113 to matter. LMT $510–$512 is the near-term target from Thursday's move; $494 is support on a pullback.
Emerging Space — SpaceX IPO Overhang Drags the Cohort
RKLB $80.69 (–5.53%) · ASTS $65.62 (–3.51%)
SpaceX's 31% decline from its $225 IPO peak to ~$156 is creating persistent overhang for the entire space cohort. Narrative pieces are circulating questioning SpaceX's $2T valuation, its pivot away from aerospace toward AI infrastructure, and its $20B unsecured debt issuance post-IPO. That uncertainty is bleeding into RKLB and ASTS as proxies. RKLB specifically — down –5.53% to $80.69 — is getting hit despite being positioned as a direct beneficiary of the satellite economy boom that SpaceX's dominance created.
Key levels to watch: RKLB $80 is the line to hold; break below puts $75 in focus. Recovery above $86–$87 would neutralize the downtrend. ASTS $63.50 is near-term support; $70 is the first meaningful resistance level on any recovery.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING
PCE follow-through and Fed speak (next 3-5 sessions). Thursday's hotter PCE print is fresh. Any Fed official commentary that reinforces higher-for-longer will continue to pressure high-multiple names (PLTR, IONQ, RKLB, DOCS). Watch for language around September cut odds.
NVDA/AMD response to Micron's print. Micron's +16% surge on Thursday was a clear AI capex validation. The question is whether NVDA can convincingly reclaim $200 and whether AMD can hold $530+ heading into next quarter's print. The Vera Rubin production ramp is the catalyst to track — Jensen Huang confirmed it is on schedule.
PLTR 52-week low holding or breaking. If PLTR can't bounce from $106–$107 on Monday, the technical deterioration accelerates. Watch it as a proxy for the entire "defense-tech at premium valuation" trade — NOC, RTX, and others will take directional cues from how PLTR resolves this level.
Quantum sector positioning reset. Both IONQ and QBTS are now in post-EO distribution. The $2B QC-ADDS program is real structural support — but the market needs time to digest positioning before the next leg. The level to watch: if IONQ fails $49-$50, the repricing could extend to $44–$45 before the fundamental buyers return.
THE CLOSING SIGNAL
The market gave you a clean framework Thursday: the AI capex cycle is validated (Micron, AMD, VRT), the valuation premium on defense-tech and quantum is deflating (PLTR, IONQ), and the energy bottleneck trade is the quietest outperformer in the room (VST +3%). The asymmetry is still in infrastructure — power and cooling — not in the software and compute names that have run hardest. When the tape sells off growth and energy holds, the structural rotation is telling you something. Pay attention to it.
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Not investment advice. Market commentary and analysis for informational purposes only. Price and volume figures are end-of-day data for Thursday, June 25, 2026; company developments are drawn from public reporting. Do your own research — we are not your financial advisor.